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Orenburg U20 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
FT
2 – 1
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
8/15/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 6Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Orenburg U2033%
×Draw24%
Sochi U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U20
1.35
Sochi U20
1.58

Sochi U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 92 away

creates per match

Orenburg U20
1.00
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Orenburg U20
1.82
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Orenburg U20+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U20 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Orenburg U20 or draw
57%
Orenburg U20 or Sochi U20
76%
Draw or Sochi U20
67%

Winning margin

Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
14%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Orenburg U20 1+ goals
74%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
39%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
15%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
79%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
47%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U20 attack 1.00 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orenburg U20 scores more
33%
level
24%
Sochi U20 scores more
43%

Sochi U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Orenburg U20 2–1 Sochi U20

Orenburg U20 beat Sochi U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on August 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.