Orenburg U20 1–2 Lokomotiv Moskva U20

Orenburg U20

FT

1 – 2

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

9/21/2019

Youth Championship · Round 10Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Orenburg U2018%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv Moskva U2060%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orenburg U20Expected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.91

Orenburg U20

0.93

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.91

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.82

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Orenburg U20

1.00

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

2.00

allows per match

Orenburg U20

1.82

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orenburg U20 or draw

40%

Orenburg U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20

82%

Winning margin

Orenburg U20 wins by 2+

6%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Orenburg U20 1+ goals

61%

Orenburg U20 2+ goals

24%

Orenburg U20 3+ goals

7%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals

85%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals

57%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)

23%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U20 attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Orenburg U20 scores more

18%

level

22%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more

60%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff