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Orenburg U19 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
8/18/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 7Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1926%
×Draw23%
Sochi U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U19
1.25
Sochi U20
1.87

Sochi U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 92 away

creates per match

Orenburg U19
0.78
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Orenburg U19
2.41
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw
48%
Orenburg U19 or Sochi U20
77%
Draw or Sochi U20
74%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
10%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals
71%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
36%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
13%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
85%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
56%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more
26%
level
23%
Sochi U20 scores more
52%

Sochi U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Orenburg U19 0–5 Sochi U20

Sochi U20 beat Orenburg U19 5-0 in Youth Championship on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.