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Orenburg U19 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
8/4/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1914%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Moskva U1966%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U19
0.89
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
2.17

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

creates per match

Orenburg U19
0.78
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.92

allows per match

Orenburg U19
2.41
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.00

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw
34%
Orenburg U19 or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
86%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
4%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals
59%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
22%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
6%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
18%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 1.92 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more
14%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more
66%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg U19 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 beat Orenburg U19 5-0 in Youth Championship on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.