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Orenburg U19 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
3/17/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 2Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1931%
×Draw22%
Khimki U2047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U19
1.50
Khimki U20
1.89

Khimki U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 42 away

creates per match

Orenburg U19
0.78
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Orenburg U19
2.41
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw
53%
Orenburg U19 or Khimki U20
78%
Draw or Khimki U20
69%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
14%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals
78%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
44%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
19%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
85%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
56%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more
31%
level
22%
Khimki U20 scores more
47%

Khimki U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khimki U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Orenburg U19 1–2 Khimki U20

Khimki U20 beat Orenburg U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.