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Orenburg U19 vs Chertanovo U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
6/28/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 12Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Orenburg U1928%
×Draw22%
Chertanovo U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg U19
1.42
Chertanovo U20
1.97

Chertanovo U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 73 away

creates per match

Orenburg U19
0.78
Chertanovo U20
1.53

allows per match

Orenburg U19
2.41
Chertanovo U20
2.05

finishing

Orenburg U19+0.00on par
Chertanovo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg U19 ↓

Chertanovo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Orenburg U19 or draw
50%
Orenburg U19 or Chertanovo U20
78%
Draw or Chertanovo U20
72%

Winning margin

Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
12%
Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Orenburg U19 1+ goals
76%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
41%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
17%
Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
86%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
58%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg U19 at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

Chertanovo U20 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.05 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg U19 attack 0.78 + Chertanovo U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.53 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orenburg U19 scores more
28%
level
22%
Chertanovo U20 scores more
50%

Chertanovo U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chertanovo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Orenburg U19 1–2 Chertanovo U20

Chertanovo U20 beat Orenburg U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on June 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.