Orenburg II 0–0 Zvezda Perm: Result & Stats

Orenburg II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda Perm

9/18/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Orenburg II31%

×Draw25%

Zvezda Perm44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orenburg IIExpected goals in this matchZvezda Perm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.57

Orenburg II

1.29

Zvezda Perm

1.57

Zvezda Perm creates 22% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.46

1.68

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Orenburg II

1.33

Zvezda Perm

1.46

allows per match

Orenburg II

1.68

Zvezda Perm

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par

Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Zvezda Perm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw

56%

Orenburg II or Zvezda Perm

75%

Draw or Zvezda Perm

69%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+

13%

Zvezda Perm wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals

72%

Orenburg II 2+ goals

37%

Orenburg II 3+ goals

14%

Zvezda Perm 1+ goals

79%

Zvezda Perm 2+ goals

46%

Zvezda Perm 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)

42%

Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Zvezda Perm defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zvezda Perm attack 1.46 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Orenburg II scores more

31%

level

25%

Zvezda Perm scores more

44%

Zvezda Perm at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zvezda Perm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff