Orenburg II 3–2 Lada Tolyatti: Result & Stats

Orenburg II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lada Tolyatti

4/11/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Orenburg II59%

×Draw21%

Lada Tolyatti21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orenburg IIExpected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.19

Orenburg II

2.13

Lada Tolyatti

1.19

Orenburg II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

1.33

creates per match

0.71

1.68

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Orenburg II

1.33

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Orenburg II

1.68

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw

79%

Orenburg II or Lada Tolyatti

79%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

41%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+

36%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals

88%

Orenburg II 2+ goals

63%

Orenburg II 3+ goals

35%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

70%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

33%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)

74%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.13

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Orenburg II scores more

59%

level

21%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

21%

Orenburg II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Orenburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff