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Orenburg II vs Khimik Vurnary — Second League - Group 4 2020

Orenburg II
Orenburg II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
5/7/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Orenburg II35%
×Draw25%
Khimik Vurnary40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg II
1.35
Khimik Vurnary
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 22 away

creates per match

Orenburg II
1.33
Khimik Vurnary
1.23

allows per match

Orenburg II
1.68
Khimik Vurnary
1.36

finishing

Orenburg II+0.00on par
Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg II ↓

Khimik Vurnary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orenburg II or draw
60%
Orenburg II or Khimik Vurnary
75%
Draw or Khimik Vurnary
65%

Winning margin

Orenburg II wins by 2+
16%
Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Orenburg II 1+ goals
74%
Orenburg II 2+ goals
39%
Orenburg II 3+ goals
15%
Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
77%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
43%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Orenburg II (draw refunded)
47%
Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 84 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg II attack 1.33 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Orenburg II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orenburg II scores more
35%
level
25%
Khimik Vurnary scores more
40%

Khimik Vurnary at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khimik Vurnary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Orenburg II 1–3 Khimik Vurnary

Khimik Vurnary beat Orenburg II 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.