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Orel vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 3 2020

Orel
Orel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/16/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orel29%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orel
1.20
Znamya Truda
1.56

Znamya Truda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

Orel
1.33
Znamya Truda
2.07

allows per match

Orel
1.06
Znamya Truda
1.07

finishing

Orel+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orel ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Orel or draw
54%
Orel or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
71%

Winning margin

Orel wins by 2+
12%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Orel 1+ goals
70%
Orel 2+ goals
34%
Orel 3+ goals
12%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
46%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orel (draw refunded)
39%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orel at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orel attack 1.33 + Znamya Truda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Znamya Truda attack 2.07 + Orel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orel scores more
29%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
46%

Znamya Truda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Orel 1–1 Znamya Truda

Orel and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on August 16, 2025.