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Orel vs Zenit Izhevsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orel
Orel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
2/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Orel14%
×Draw15%
Zenit Izhevsk70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orel
1.33
Zenit Izhevsk
3.00

Zenit Izhevsk creates 126% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Orel
1.67
Zenit Izhevsk
2.33

allows per match

Orel
3.67
Zenit Izhevsk
1.00

finishing

Orel+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orel ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Orel or draw
30%
Orel or Zenit Izhevsk
85%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
86%

Winning margin

Orel wins by 2+
6%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Orel 1+ goals
74%
Orel 2+ goals
38%
Orel 3+ goals
15%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
95%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
79%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Orel (draw refunded)
17%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orel at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orel attack 1.67 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zenit Izhevsk attack 2.33 + Orel defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Orel scores more
14%
level
15%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
70%

Zenit Izhevsk at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Orel 2–1 Zenit Izhevsk

Orel beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 24, 2026.