Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orel vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Orel
Orel
Preview
15:00
Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
7/25/2026Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16
43%
Orel
model favours
43%26%31%
1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Orel43%
×Draw26%
Saturn Ramenskoye31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orel
1.45
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.19

Orel creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

creates per match

Orel
1.33
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.32

allows per match

Orel
1.06
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.57

finishing

Orel+0.00on par
Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orel ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orel or draw
69%
Orel or Saturn Ramenskoye
74%
Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye
57%

Winning margin

Orel wins by 2+
21%
Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orel 1+ goals
77%
Orel 2+ goals
42%
Orel 3+ goals
18%
Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
70%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
33%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orel (draw refunded)
58%
Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orel at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orel attack 1.33 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Orel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orel scores more
43%
level
26%
Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
31%

Orel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Orel
LLWWD
Ramenskoye
DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orel vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Match Preview

Orel face Saturn Ramenskoye on July 25, 2026 in this Second League - Group 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.