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Orel vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 3 2020

Orel
Orel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
5/26/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Orel62%
×Draw21%
Kolomna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orel
1.98
Kolomna
0.91

Orel creates 118% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

creates per match

Orel
1.33
Kolomna
0.76

allows per match

Orel
1.06
Kolomna
2.62

finishing

Orel+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orel ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orel or draw
83%
Orel or Kolomna
79%
Draw or Kolomna
38%

Winning margin

Orel wins by 2+
38%
Kolomna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Orel 1+ goals
86%
Orel 2+ goals
59%
Orel 3+ goals
31%
Kolomna 1+ goals
60%
Kolomna 2+ goals
23%
Kolomna 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orel (draw refunded)
79%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orel at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orel attack 1.33 + Kolomna defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kolomna attack 0.76 + Orel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Orel scores more
62%
level
21%
Kolomna scores more
17%

Orel at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Orel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orel 1 – 1 Kolomna

Orel and Kolomna drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina in Orel.