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Orel vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Orel
Orel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
4/14/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Orel46%
×Draw25%
Khimki II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orel
1.58
Khimki II
1.21

Orel creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 74 away

creates per match

Orel
1.33
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Orel
1.06
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Orel+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orel ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orel or draw
71%
Orel or Khimki II
75%
Draw or Khimki II
54%

Winning margin

Orel wins by 2+
23%
Khimki II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orel 1+ goals
79%
Orel 2+ goals
47%
Orel 3+ goals
21%
Khimki II 1+ goals
70%
Khimki II 2+ goals
34%
Khimki II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orel (draw refunded)
61%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orel at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.06 · 36 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orel attack 1.33 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Orel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orel scores more
46%
level
25%
Khimki II scores more
29%

Orel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orel 1 – 2 Khimki II

Khimki II beat Orel 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina in Orel.