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Örebro Syrianska vs Piteå — Ettan - Norra 2019

Örebro Syrianska
Örebro Syrianska
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Piteå
Piteå
5/13/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 7Mellringe IP Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Örebro Syrianska40%
×Draw25%
Piteå35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Örebro Syrianska
1.50
Piteå
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 67 away

creates per match

Örebro Syrianska
1.26
Piteå
1.33

allows per match

Örebro Syrianska
1.44
Piteå
1.75

finishing

Örebro Syrianska+0.00on par
Piteå+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Örebro Syrianska ↓

Piteå →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Örebro Syrianska or draw
65%
Örebro Syrianska or Piteå
75%
Draw or Piteå
60%

Winning margin

Örebro Syrianska wins by 2+
19%
Piteå wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Örebro Syrianska 1+ goals
78%
Örebro Syrianska 2+ goals
44%
Örebro Syrianska 3+ goals
19%
Piteå 1+ goals
75%
Piteå 2+ goals
40%
Piteå 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Örebro Syrianska (draw refunded)
53%
Piteå (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Örebro Syrianska at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.44 · 90 matches

Piteå away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.75 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Örebro Syrianska attack 1.26 + Piteå defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Piteå attack 1.33 + Örebro Syrianska defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Örebro Syrianska scores more
40%
level
25%
Piteå scores more
35%

Örebro Syrianska at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Örebro Syrianska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Örebro Syrianska 3–3 Piteå

Örebro Syrianska and Piteå drew 3-3 in Ettan - Norra on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Mellringe IP Konstgräs in Örebro.