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Örebro SK W vs Jitex W — Elitettan 2021

Örebro SK W
Örebro SK W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jitex W
Jitex W
11/2/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 25Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Örebro SK W42%
×Draw24%
Jitex W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Örebro SK W
1.67
Jitex W
1.47

Örebro SK W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 69 away

creates per match

Örebro SK W
1.42
Jitex W
1.55

allows per match

Örebro SK W
1.39
Jitex W
1.91

finishing

Örebro SK W+0.00on par
Jitex W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Örebro SK W ↓

Jitex W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Örebro SK W or draw
66%
Örebro SK W or Jitex W
76%
Draw or Jitex W
58%

Winning margin

Örebro SK W wins by 2+
22%
Jitex W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Örebro SK W 1+ goals
81%
Örebro SK W 2+ goals
50%
Örebro SK W 3+ goals
23%
Jitex W 1+ goals
77%
Jitex W 2+ goals
43%
Jitex W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Örebro SK W (draw refunded)
56%
Jitex W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Örebro SK W at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Jitex W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Örebro SK W attack 1.42 + Jitex W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Jitex W attack 1.55 + Örebro SK W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Örebro SK W scores more
42%
level
24%
Jitex W scores more
34%

Örebro SK W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Örebro SK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Örebro SK W 1–1 Jitex W

Örebro SK W and Jitex W drew 1-1 in Elitettan on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.