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Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
CANC
12:00
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
2/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orebro SK69%
×Draw20%
Vasteras SK FK12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
2.02
Vasteras SK FK
0.68

Orebro SK creates 197% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.75
Vasteras SK FK
0.86

allows per match

Orebro SK
0.50
Vasteras SK FK
2.29

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
88%
Orebro SK or Vasteras SK FK
80%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
31%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
43%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
87%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
60%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
33%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
49%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
15%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
86%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.75 + Vasteras SK FK defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

Vasteras SK FK attack 0.86 + Orebro SK defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Orebro SK scores more
69%
level
20%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
12%

Orebro SK at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orebro SK vs Vasteras SK FK — Match Preview

Orebro SK face Vasteras SK FK on February 1, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Orebro SK host Vasteras SK FK at Behrn Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.