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Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS — Svenska Cupen 2019

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
2/27/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orebro SK41%
×Draw23%
Orgryte IS36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.78
Orgryte IS
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.50
Orgryte IS
1.06

allows per match

Orebro SK
2.25
Orgryte IS
2.06

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
64%
Orebro SK or Orgryte IS
77%
Draw or Orgryte IS
59%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
22%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
83%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
53%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
26%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
81%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
49%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
53%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + Orgryte IS defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Orgryte IS attack 1.06 + Orebro SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orebro SK scores more
41%
level
23%
Orgryte IS scores more
36%

Orebro SK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orebro SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orebro SK vs Orgryte IS

Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.