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Orebro SK vs Karlberg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Orebro SK
Orebro SK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Karlberg
Karlberg
3/2/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 3Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orebro SK17%
×Draw20%
Karlberg63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orebro SK
1.00
Karlberg
2.13

Karlberg creates 113% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Orebro SK
1.50
Karlberg
2.00

allows per match

Orebro SK
2.25
Karlberg
0.50

finishing

Orebro SK+0.00on par
Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orebro SK ↓

Karlberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Orebro SK or draw
37%
Orebro SK or Karlberg
80%
Draw or Karlberg
83%

Winning margin

Orebro SK wins by 2+
6%
Karlberg wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Orebro SK 1+ goals
63%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
26%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
8%
Karlberg 1+ goals
88%
Karlberg 2+ goals
63%
Karlberg 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Orebro SK (draw refunded)
21%
Karlberg (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orebro SK at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Karlberg away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orebro SK attack 1.50 + Karlberg defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Karlberg attack 2.00 + Orebro SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Orebro SK scores more
17%
level
20%
Karlberg scores more
63%

Karlberg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Orebro SK 1–2 Karlberg

Karlberg beat Orebro SK 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.