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Ordabasy vs Kairat Almaty — Cup 2019

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
8/7/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 5Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ordabasy39%
×Draw25%
Kairat Almaty36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordabasy
1.48
Kairat Almaty
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ordabasy
1.60
Kairat Almaty
1.86

allows per match

Ordabasy
0.93
Kairat Almaty
1.36

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par
Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

Kairat Almaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw
64%
Ordabasy or Kairat Almaty
75%
Draw or Kairat Almaty
61%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+
19%
Kairat Almaty wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals
77%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
43%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
19%
Kairat Almaty 1+ goals
75%
Kairat Almaty 2+ goals
41%
Kairat Almaty 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)
52%
Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Kairat Almaty away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.60 + Kairat Almaty defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kairat Almaty attack 1.86 + Ordabasy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ordabasy scores more
39%
level
25%
Kairat Almaty scores more
36%

Ordabasy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ordabasy vs Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty beat Ordabasy 3-1 in Cup on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov in Shymkent.