Kairat Almaty 4–0 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

Kairat Almaty

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ordabasy

J. Stanojev 74'

G. Zaria 45' (pen), 9'

Joao Paulo 38'

3/8/2025

Premier League · Round 2Almaty Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Kairat Almaty50%

×Draw25%

Ordabasy25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kairat AlmatyExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Kairat Almaty

1.65

Ordabasy

1.09

Kairat Almaty creates 51% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 93 away

2.11

creates per match

1.33

0.85

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kairat Almaty

2.11

Ordabasy

1.33

allows per match

Kairat Almaty

0.85

Ordabasy

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kairat Almaty+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kairat Almaty ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kairat Almaty or draw

75%

Kairat Almaty or Ordabasy

75%

Draw or Ordabasy

50%

Winning margin

Kairat Almaty wins by 2+

27%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kairat Almaty 1+ goals

81%

Kairat Almaty 2+ goals

49%

Kairat Almaty 3+ goals

23%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

66%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

30%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kairat Almaty (draw refunded)

67%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kairat Almaty at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kairat Almaty attack 2.11 + Ordabasy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ordabasy attack 1.33 + Kairat Almaty defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kairat Almaty scores more

50%

level

25%

Ordabasy scores more

25%

Kairat Almaty at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kairat Almaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. Zaria↳ V. Gromyko

22'

Dan Glazer

38'

Joao Paulo↳ O. Arad

45'

G. ZariaPenalty

46'

K. Saliman← Z. Sultaniyazov

46'

D. Canadjija← R. Abubakar

56'

D. Kasabulat← A. Martynovich

63'

V. Shvyrev← L. Imnadze

72'

J. Stanojev← G. Zaria

72'

Jorginho← Joao Paulo

73'

M. Khalmatov← A. Tagybergen

74'

J. Stanojev↳ Jorginho

78'

Kayode Saliman

78'

E. Tungyshbaev← Everton

82'

I. Bekbolat← V. Gromyko

82'

R. Bagdat← D. Satpaev

86'

Vyacheslav Shvyrev

Kairat

Ordabasy

34

4

6

14

22

8

▼

Tagyberge

18

▼

Abubakar

5

Antic

17

▼

Sultaniya

9

▼

Everton

7

▼

Imnadze

1

Zarutskiy

20

Tapalov

14

▼

Martynovi

80

Sorokin

3

Mata

55

A

▼

Gromyko

18

Glazer

15

A

Arad

10

⚽2

▼

Zaria

9

▼

Satpaev

11

⚽

▼

Paulo

56'▲D. Kasabulat←▼A. Martynovich

72'▲J. Stanojev←▼G. Zaria

72'▲Jorginho←▼Joao Paulo

82'▲I. Bekbolat←▼V. Gromyko

82'▲R. Bagdat←▼D. Satpaev

Kairat Almaty substitutes

77Anarbekov5Kurgin59Tashpulatov4Kasabulat25Shirobokov24Mrynskiy33Stanojev81Bekbolat89Bagdat7Jorginho

46'▲K. Saliman←▼Z. Sultaniyazov

46'▲D. Canadjija←▼R. Abubakar

63'▲V. Shvyrev←▼L. Imnadze

73'▲M. Khalmatov←▼A. Tagybergen

78'▲E. Tungyshbaev←▼Everton

Ordabasy substitutes

1Shayzada25Maliy47Amir77Saliman23Khalmatov27Canadjija10Shvyrev29Nuraly11Tungyshbaev