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Ordabasy vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
Preview
15:00
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
8/2/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov
Big match
52%
Ordabasy
model favours
52%25%22%

Ordabasy have scored in 10 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ordabasy52%
×Draw25%
FK Tobol Kostanay22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordabasy
1.56
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.92

Ordabasy creates 70% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ordabasy
1.79
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.08

allows per match

Ordabasy
0.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.32

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw
78%
Ordabasy or FK Tobol Kostanay
75%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
48%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+
27%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals
79%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
46%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
21%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
60%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
23%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)
70%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.79 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.08 + Ordabasy defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ordabasy scores more
52%
level
25%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
22%

Ordabasy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Tobol Kostanay have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Both teams score in 73% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s matches
  • Ordabasy sit 1, FK Tobol Kostanay 11 in the table
  • 24% of FK Tobol Kostanay’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ordabasy
WLWWW
Kostanay
WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ordabasy face FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Ordabasy hosting FK Tobol Kostanay. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ordabasy host FK Tobol Kostanay at Stadion Kazhymukan Munaitpasov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.