FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ordabasy

E. Tapalov 32'

10/19/2024

Premier League · Round 23Tobyl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay47%

×Draw26%

Ordabasy27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.07

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.51

Ordabasy

1.07

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 41% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.86

creates per match

1.24

0.90

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.86

Ordabasy

1.24

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.90

Ordabasy

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

73%

FK Tobol Kostanay or Ordabasy

74%

Draw or Ordabasy

53%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

24%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

78%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

44%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

19%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

66%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

29%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

64%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.86 + Ordabasy defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ordabasy attack 1.24 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

47%

level

26%

Ordabasy scores more

27%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

45'

51'

57'

57'

S. Umarov← S. Astanov

57'

Y. Tungyshbayev← A. Biesiedin

63'

Rui Costa← D. Henen

64'

G. Suyumbayev← Z. Šehović

65'

Roman Asrankulov

69'

V. Sadovskiy← B. Islamkhan

87'

Jasurbek Yakhshiboev

90+4'

T. Mosiashvili← A. El Messaoudi

90+4'

Z. Zhumashev← I. Chesnokov

FK4-2-3-1

Ordabasy3-5-2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Zhumaskaliev

45'▲A. Zuev←▼I. Ivanović

63'▲Rui Costa←▼D. Henen

90+4'▲T. Mosiashvili←▼A. El Messaoudi

90+4'▲Z. Zhumashev←▼I. Chesnokov

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

ZuevCostaMosiashviliZhumashevGalymAbdullaBozhkoTsonevBusurmanovMelikhov

Manager: K. Keker

57'▲C. Tovar←▼S. Maliy

57'▲S. Umarov←▼S. Astanov

57'▲Y. Tungyshbayev←▼A. Biesiedin

64'▲G. Suyumbayev←▼Z. Šehović

69'▲V. Sadovskiy←▼B. Islamkhan

Ordabasy substitutes

TovarUmarovTungyshbayevSuyumbayevSadovskiyShaizadaCvekLopesZhomartovFedinZharynbetov

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Ordabasy

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Ordabasy 1-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

Goals: E. Tapalov (32').

The match was played at Tobyl Arena in Kostanay.

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: FK Tobol Kostanay 1–0 Ordabasy