Ordabasy 3–1 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Ordabasy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FK Tobol Kostanay

S. Nyuiadzi 85', 44'

E. Astanov 22' (pen)

I. Sergeev 41'

4/9/2022

Premier League · Round 5Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ordabasy46%

×Draw25%

FK Tobol Kostanay29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrdabasyExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Ordabasy

1.52

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.15

Ordabasy creates 32% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 92 away

1.77

creates per match

1.32

0.97

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ordabasy

1.77

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.32

allows per match

Ordabasy

0.97

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw

71%

Ordabasy or FK Tobol Kostanay

75%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

54%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+

23%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals

78%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

45%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

20%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

68%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

32%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

61%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.97 · 86 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.77 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.32 + Ordabasy defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ordabasy scores more

46%

level

25%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

29%

Ordabasy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Marochkin

21'

S. Maliy← A. Amanović

22'

E. AstanovPenalty

41'

I. Sergeev

44'

S. Nyuiadzi

54'

57'

A. Khadzhiev← S. Doumbia

62'

Luiz Henrique← V. Sadovskiy

65'

B. Kairov

73'

Goal Disallowed - handball

79'

82'

S. Zharynbetov← A. Tagybergen

82'

Z. Tošić← I. Sergeev

85'

S. Nyuiadzi

86'

S. Zharynbetov

89'

90'

M. Khalmatov← A. Dobay

Ordabasy3-4-3

FK3-5-2

Zhaksylyk

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: A. Sednev

57'▲A. Khadzhiev←▼S. Doumbia

62'▲Luiz Henrique←▼V. Sadovskiy

90'▲M. Khalmatov←▼A. Dobay

Ordabasy substitutes

KhadzhievHenriqueKhalmatovTazhibayMamyrbayevZakirovSultaniiazov

Manager: A. Moskalenko

21'▲S. Maliy←▼A. Amanović

82'▲S. Zharynbetov←▼A. Tagybergen

82'▲Z. Tošić←▼I. Sergeev

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

MaliyZharynbetovTošićMiroshnichenkoNepogodovSemchenkovAsrankulovBusurmanovKulpeisovZhumashevBaidavletov

Premier League: Ordabasy 3–1 FK Tobol Kostanay

Ordabasy beat FK Tobol Kostanay 3-1 in Premier League on April 9, 2022.

Goals: E. Astanov (22' pen), I. Sergeev (41'), S. Nyuiadzi (44', 85').

The match was played at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov in Shymkent.

Ordabasy vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Ordabasy 3–1 FK Tobol Kostanay