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Ordabasy vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

Ordabasy
Ordabasy
CANC
00:00
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
8/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Ordabasy63%
×Draw22%
FK Aksu15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ordabasy
1.89
FK Aksu
0.81

Ordabasy creates 133% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ordabasy
1.73
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

Ordabasy
0.90
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

Ordabasy+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ordabasy ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ordabasy or draw
85%
Ordabasy or FK Aksu
78%
Draw or FK Aksu
37%

Winning margin

Ordabasy wins by 2+
37%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ordabasy 1+ goals
85%
Ordabasy 2+ goals
56%
Ordabasy 3+ goals
29%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
56%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
19%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ordabasy (draw refunded)
80%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ordabasy at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 97 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ordabasy attack 1.73 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.89

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + Ordabasy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ordabasy scores more
63%
level
22%
FK Aksu scores more
15%

Ordabasy at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ordabasy vs FK Aksu — Match Preview

Ordabasy face FK Aksu on August 3, 2024 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ordabasy host FK Aksu at Stadion Qajimuqan Muñaytpasov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.