Orbit College 0–3 Sekhukhune United: Result & Stats

Orbit College

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sekhukhune United

T. Mokoane 64'

V. Mncube 60', 40'

8/19/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 3Olympia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orbit College26%

×Draw31%

Sekhukhune United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orbit CollegeExpected goals in this matchSekhukhune United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.13

Orbit College

0.82

Sekhukhune United

1.13

Sekhukhune United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 75 away

0.65

creates per match

0.91

1.35

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Orbit College

0.65

Sekhukhune United

0.91

allows per match

Orbit College

1.35

Sekhukhune United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Sekhukhune United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw

57%

Orbit College or Sekhukhune United

69%

Draw or Sekhukhune United

74%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+

8%

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals

56%

Orbit College 2+ goals

20%

Orbit College 3+ goals

5%

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals

68%

Sekhukhune United 2+ goals

31%

Sekhukhune United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)

38%

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Sekhukhune United away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Sekhukhune United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Sekhukhune United attack 0.91 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orbit College scores more

26%

level

31%

Sekhukhune United scores more

43%

Sekhukhune United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Makgalwa

Sekhukhune United · M

10.0

Match Events

40'

V. Mncube↳ K. Makgalwa

44'

A. Batsi← R. Potsana

60'

V. Mncube↳ K. Makgalwa

62'

L. Modimoeng← M. Saleng

62'

T. Mokoane← N. Rammala

64'

T. Mokoane↳ K. Makgalwa

75'

S. Mogaila← T. Matsimbi

75'

M. Timm← T. Monare

75'

C. Ohizu← B. Grobler

78'

T. Mohlamme← S. Mabele

78'

T. Moleleki← L. Koapeng

81'

S. Malivha← K. Makgalwa

83'

Siphesihle Mkhize

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrbitSekhukhune

Overview

34%Possession66%

5Total Shots13

2Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots13

1On Target7

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

2Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

314Total Passes600

245Accurate Passes540

78%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2