Oravské Veselé 1–1 Vranov nad Topľou

Oravské Veselé

FT

1 – 1

Vranov nad Topľou

4/4/2023

3. liga - East · East - 20Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oravské Veselé53%

×Draw24%

Vranov nad Topľou23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oravské VeseléExpected goals in this matchVranov nad Topľou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.05

Oravské Veselé

1.74

Vranov nad Topľou

1.05

Oravské Veselé creates 66% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 81 away

2.00

creates per match

1.14

0.97

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Oravské Veselé

2.00

Vranov nad Topľou

1.14

allows per match

Oravské Veselé

0.97

Vranov nad Topľou

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw

77%

Oravské Veselé or Vranov nad Topľou

76%

Draw or Vranov nad Topľou

47%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+

29%

Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals

82%

Oravské Veselé 2+ goals

52%

Oravské Veselé 3+ goals

25%

Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals

65%

Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals

28%

Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)

70%

Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Oravské Veselé defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more

53%

level

24%

Vranov nad Topľou scores more

23%

Oravské Veselé at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff