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Oravské Veselé vs Tatran Krásno — 3. liga - Center 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
FT
4 – 1
Tatran Krásno
Tatran Krásno
6/20/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 12Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oravské Veselé59%
×Draw21%
Tatran Krásno20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
2.02
Tatran Krásno
1.08

Oravské Veselé creates 87% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Tatran Krásno
1.04

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
1.11
Tatran Krásno
2.04

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Tatran Krásno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Tatran Krásno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
80%
Oravské Veselé or Tatran Krásno
79%
Draw or Tatran Krásno
41%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
35%
Tatran Krásno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
87%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
60%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
33%
Tatran Krásno 1+ goals
66%
Tatran Krásno 2+ goals
29%
Tatran Krásno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Krásno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Tatran Krásno away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Tatran Krásno defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tatran Krásno attack 1.04 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
59%
level
21%
Tatran Krásno scores more
20%

Oravské Veselé at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oravské Veselé 4 – 1 Tatran Krásno

Oravské Veselé beat Tatran Krásno 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé in Oravské Veselé.