Oravské Veselé 1–2 Rakytovce: Result & Stats

Oravské Veselé

FT

1 – 2

Rakytovce

8/15/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 3Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oravské Veselé44%

×Draw25%

Rakytovce31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oravské VeseléExpected goals in this matchRakytovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Oravské Veselé

1.52

Rakytovce

1.25

Oravské Veselé creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

1.39

1.11

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Oravské Veselé

2.00

Rakytovce

1.39

allows per match

Oravské Veselé

1.11

Rakytovce

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Rakytovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Rakytovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw

69%

Oravské Veselé or Rakytovce

75%

Draw or Rakytovce

56%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+

22%

Rakytovce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals

78%

Oravské Veselé 2+ goals

45%

Oravské Veselé 3+ goals

20%

Rakytovce 1+ goals

71%

Rakytovce 2+ goals

36%

Rakytovce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)

58%

Rakytovce (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Rakytovce away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Rakytovce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rakytovce attack 1.39 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more

44%

level

25%

Rakytovce scores more

31%

Oravské Veselé at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff