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Oravské Veselé vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
CANC
13:30
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
4/4/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 17Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Oravské Veselé67%
×Draw18%
Liptovský Hrádok15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
2.43
Liptovský Hrádok
1.06

Oravské Veselé creates 129% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 22 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
1.11
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
85%
Oravské Veselé or Liptovský Hrádok
82%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
33%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
45%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
91%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
69%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
43%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
65%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
29%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
82%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
67%
level
18%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
15%

Oravské Veselé at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oravské Veselé face Liptovský Hrádok (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Oravské Veselé hosting Liptovský Hrádok. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oravské Veselé host Liptovský Hrádok at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.