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Oravské Veselé vs Lipany — 3. liga - East 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lipany
Lipany
8/13/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 2Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Oravské Veselé48%
×Draw24%
Lipany28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
1.73
Lipany
1.27

Oravské Veselé creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 80 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Lipany
1.57

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
0.97
Lipany
1.45

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Lipany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
72%
Oravské Veselé or Lipany
76%
Draw or Lipany
52%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
26%
Lipany wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
82%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
52%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
25%
Lipany 1+ goals
72%
Lipany 2+ goals
36%
Lipany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
63%
Lipany (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lipany attack 1.57 + Oravské Veselé defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
48%
level
24%
Lipany scores more
28%

Oravské Veselé at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Oravské Veselé 1–0 Lipany

Oravské Veselé beat Lipany 1-0 in 3. liga - East on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé in Oravské Veselé.