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Oratório vs Santos AP — League #521 2026

Oratório
Oratório
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos AP
Santos AP
4/10/2025League #521League #521 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Milton Corrêa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oratório40%
×Draw24%
Santos AP36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oratório
1.60
Santos AP
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Oratório
1.88
Santos AP
1.78

allows per match

Oratório
1.25
Santos AP
1.33

finishing

Oratório+0.00on par
Santos AP+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oratório ↓

Santos AP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oratório or draw
64%
Oratório or Santos AP
76%
Draw or Santos AP
60%

Winning margin

Oratório wins by 2+
20%
Santos AP wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oratório 1+ goals
80%
Oratório 2+ goals
47%
Oratório 3+ goals
22%
Santos AP 1+ goals
78%
Santos AP 2+ goals
45%
Santos AP 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oratório (draw refunded)
52%
Santos AP (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oratório at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Santos AP away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oratório attack 1.88 + Santos AP defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Santos AP attack 1.78 + Oratório defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oratório scores more
40%
level
24%
Santos AP scores more
36%

Oratório at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oratório will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oratório vs Santos AP

Oratório beat Santos AP 1-0 in League #521 on April 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Milton Corrêa in Macapá, Amapá.