Orašje 2–1 TOŠK Tešanj: Result & Stats

Orašje

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

TOŠK Tešanj

5/25/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 28Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje48%

×Draw24%

TOŠK Tešanj27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrašjeExpected goals in this matchTOŠK Tešanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.19

Orašje

1.66

TOŠK Tešanj

1.19

Orašje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

1.78

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Orašje

1.78

TOŠK Tešanj

1.21

allows per match

Orašje

1.16

TOŠK Tešanj

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orašje or draw

73%

Orašje or TOŠK Tešanj

76%

Draw or TOŠK Tešanj

52%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+

25%

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals

81%

Orašje 2+ goals

49%

Orašje 3+ goals

23%

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals

70%

TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals

33%

TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)

64%

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orašje scores more

48%

level

24%

TOŠK Tešanj scores more

27%

Orašje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff