Orašje 1–3 Stupčanica Olovo: Result & Stats

Orašje

FT

1 – 3

Stupčanica Olovo

9/17/2022

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Tomislavgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje42%

×Draw26%

Stupčanica Olovo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrašjeExpected goals in this matchStupčanica Olovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

Orašje

1.40

Stupčanica Olovo

1.19

Orašje creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

1.78

creates per match

1.23

1.16

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Orašje

1.78

Stupčanica Olovo

1.23

allows per match

Orašje

1.16

Stupčanica Olovo

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par

Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orašje or draw

68%

Orašje or Stupčanica Olovo

74%

Draw or Stupčanica Olovo

58%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+

20%

Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals

75%

Orašje 2+ goals

41%

Orašje 3+ goals

17%

Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals

70%

Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals

33%

Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)

57%

Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orašje scores more

42%

level

26%

Stupčanica Olovo scores more

32%

Orašje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff