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Orašje vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
0 – 2
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
8/17/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje52%
×Draw24%
Radnik Hadžići24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.69
Radnik Hadžići
1.06

Orašje creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 94 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
76%
Orašje or Radnik Hadžići
76%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
48%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
28%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
82%
Orašje 2+ goals
50%
Orašje 3+ goals
24%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
65%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
29%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
69%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orašje scores more
52%
level
24%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
24%

Orašje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orašje vs Radnik Hadžići

Radnik Hadžići beat Orašje 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.