Orašje 1–1 Posušje: Result & Stats

Orašje

FT

1 – 1

Posušje

5/15/2021

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 26Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orašje37%

×Draw29%

Posušje34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrašjeExpected goals in this matchPosušje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.08

Orašje

1.13

Posušje

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Orašje

1.78

Posušje

1.00

allows per match

Orašje

1.16

Posušje

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par

Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Posušje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Orašje or draw

66%

Orašje or Posušje

71%

Draw or Posušje

63%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+

15%

Posušje wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals

68%

Orašje 2+ goals

31%

Orašje 3+ goals

11%

Posušje 1+ goals

66%

Posušje 2+ goals

29%

Posušje 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)

52%

Posušje (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Posušje away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Posušje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Posušje attack 1.00 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orašje scores more

37%

level

29%

Posušje scores more

34%

Orašje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff