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Orašje vs Olimpik Sarajevo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
1 – 1
Olimpik Sarajevo
Olimpik Sarajevo
11/9/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orašje40%
×Draw25%
Olimpik Sarajevo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.46
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.33

Orašje creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 8 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.50

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Olimpik Sarajevo
1.13

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
66%
Orašje or Olimpik Sarajevo
75%
Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo
60%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
19%
Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
77%
Orašje 2+ goals
43%
Orašje 3+ goals
18%
Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals
74%
Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals
38%
Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
54%
Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.50 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orašje scores more
40%
level
25%
Olimpik Sarajevo scores more
34%

Orašje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 1–1 Olimpik Sarajevo

Orašje and Olimpik Sarajevo drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.