Orašje 5–0 Metalleghe-BSI Jajce: Result & Stats

Orašje

FT

5 – 0

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

10/13/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Orašje63%

×Draw20%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrašjeExpected goals in this matchMetalleghe-BSI Jajce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.95

Orašje

2.08

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

0.95

Orašje creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 8 away

1.78

creates per match

0.75

1.16

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Orašje

1.78

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

0.75

allows per match

Orašje

1.16

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Orašje or draw

84%

Orašje or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

80%

Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

37%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+

39%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals

87%

Orašje 2+ goals

61%

Orašje 3+ goals

34%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals

61%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals

25%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)

79%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.08

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Orašje scores more

63%

level

20%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more

16%

Orašje at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff