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Orašje vs Jedinstvo Bihać — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
1 – 0
Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
10/16/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 10Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje60%
×Draw22%
Jedinstvo Bihać18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.88
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.92

Orašje creates 104% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.69

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.97

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
82%
Orašje or Jedinstvo Bihać
78%
Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać
40%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
35%
Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
85%
Orašje 2+ goals
56%
Orašje 3+ goals
29%
Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
60%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
23%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
77%
Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Orašje scores more
60%
level
22%
Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
18%

Orašje at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 1–0 Jedinstvo Bihać

Orašje beat Jedinstvo Bihać 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.