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Orašje vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
2 – 2
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
9/11/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje52%
×Draw24%
Budućnost Banovići24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.75
Budućnost Banovići
1.11

Orašje creates 58% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
76%
Orašje or Budućnost Banovići
76%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
48%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
29%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
83%
Orašje 2+ goals
52%
Orašje 3+ goals
25%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
67%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
30%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
68%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orašje scores more
52%
level
24%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
24%

Orašje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 2–2 Budućnost Banovići

Orašje and Budućnost Banovići drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.