Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orašje vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Orašje
Orašje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
3/26/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Novi Stadion Orašje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Orašje50%
×Draw25%
Bratstvo Gračanica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orašje
1.59
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.05

Orašje creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 96 away

creates per match

Orašje
1.78
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.94

allows per match

Orašje
1.16
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.41

finishing

Orašje+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orašje ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orašje or draw
75%
Orašje or Bratstvo Gračanica
75%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
50%

Winning margin

Orašje wins by 2+
26%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orašje 1+ goals
80%
Orašje 2+ goals
47%
Orašje 3+ goals
21%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
65%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
28%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orašje (draw refunded)
67%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orašje at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orašje attack 1.78 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Orašje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orašje scores more
50%
level
25%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
25%

Orašje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orašje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Orašje 1–0 Bratstvo Gračanica

Orašje beat Bratstvo Gračanica 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Novi Stadion Orašje in Orašje.