Orania Vianden 0–5 Koeppchen: Result & Stats | Cup

Orania Vianden

0 – 5

Koeppchen

9/11/2022

Cup · 1st RoundTerrain am Komp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orania Vianden10%

×Draw12%

Koeppchen78%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orania ViandenExpected goals in this matchKoeppchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

3.75

Orania Vianden

1.40

Koeppchen

3.75

Koeppchen creates 168% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

4.00

3.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Orania Vianden

1.00

Koeppchen

4.00

allows per match

Orania Vianden

3.50

Koeppchen

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orania Vianden+0.00on par

Koeppchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orania Vianden ↓

Koeppchen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–45%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Orania Vianden or draw

22%

Orania Vianden or Koeppchen

88%

Draw or Koeppchen

90%

Winning margin

Orania Vianden wins by 2+

Koeppchen wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Orania Vianden 1+ goals

75%

Orania Vianden 2+ goals

41%

Orania Vianden 3+ goals

17%

Koeppchen 1+ goals

97%

Koeppchen 2+ goals

88%

Koeppchen 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

Orania Vianden (draw refunded)

12%

Koeppchen (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Orania Vianden at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Koeppchen away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Orania Vianden attack 1.00 + Koeppchen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Koeppchen attack 4.00 + Orania Vianden defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Orania Vianden scores more

10%

level

12%

Koeppchen scores more

78%

Koeppchen at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Koeppchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff