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Orania Vianden vs Berdenia Berbourg — Cup 2020

Orania Vianden
Orania Vianden
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Berdenia Berbourg
Berdenia Berbourg
10/5/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain am Komp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orania Vianden20%
×Draw17%
Berdenia Berbourg63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orania Vianden
1.58
Berdenia Berbourg
2.83

Berdenia Berbourg creates 79% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Orania Vianden
1.00
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

allows per match

Orania Vianden
3.50
Berdenia Berbourg
2.17

finishing

Orania Vianden+0.00on par
Berdenia Berbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orania Vianden ↓

Berdenia Berbourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Orania Vianden or draw
37%
Orania Vianden or Berdenia Berbourg
83%
Draw or Berdenia Berbourg
80%

Winning margin

Orania Vianden wins by 2+
9%
Berdenia Berbourg wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Orania Vianden 1+ goals
79%
Orania Vianden 2+ goals
47%
Orania Vianden 3+ goals
21%
Berdenia Berbourg 1+ goals
94%
Berdenia Berbourg 2+ goals
77%
Berdenia Berbourg 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Orania Vianden (draw refunded)
24%
Berdenia Berbourg (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orania Vianden at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Berdenia Berbourg away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orania Vianden attack 1.00 + Berdenia Berbourg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Berdenia Berbourg attack 2.17 + Orania Vianden defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Orania Vianden scores more
20%
level
17%
Berdenia Berbourg scores more
63%

Berdenia Berbourg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Berdenia Berbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orania Vianden vs Berdenia Berbourg

Orania Vianden beat Berdenia Berbourg 4-3 in Cup on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain am Komp in Vianden.