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Orange County SC vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
8/5/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 37Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Orange County SC55%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
1.89
Sporting KC II
1.13

Orange County SC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
77%
Orange County SC or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
45%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
32%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
85%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
56%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
29%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
68%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
31%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
71%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Orange County SC scores more
55%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
23%

Orange County SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orange County SC 2 – 1 Sporting KC II

Orange County SC beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).