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Orange County SC vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
10/7/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 55Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Orange County SC62%
×Draw21%
Seattle Sounders II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
2.02
Seattle Sounders II
0.95

Orange County SC creates 113% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 18 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
83%
Orange County SC or Seattle Sounders II
79%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
38%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
38%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
87%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
60%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
33%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
61%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
25%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
78%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.02

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Orange County SC scores more
62%
level
21%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
17%

Orange County SC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Orange County SC 2–1 Seattle Sounders II

Orange County SC beat Seattle Sounders II 2-1 in USL Championship on October 7, 2018.

The match was played at Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).