Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orange County SC vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
3/20/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Championship Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Orange County SC48%
×Draw25%
Rio Grande Valley27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
1.63
Rio Grande Valley
1.16

Orange County SC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 93 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
73%
Orange County SC or Rio Grande Valley
75%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
52%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
25%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
80%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
48%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
22%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
69%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
32%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
64%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orange County SC scores more
48%
level
25%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
27%

Orange County SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orange County SC vs Rio Grande Valley

Orange County SC beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in USL Championship on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Championship Soccer Stadium in Irvine, California.