Orange County SC 3–1 Colorado Springs

Orange County SC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Colorado Springs

M. War 90'

C. Dunbar 61'

C. Hegardt 28'

A. Fontana 66'

5/25/2025

USL Championship · Round 13Championship Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Orange County SC50%

×Draw24%

Colorado Springs26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orange County SCExpected goals in this matchColorado Springs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Orange County SC

1.71

Colorado Springs

1.15

Orange County SC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 133 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Orange County SC

1.60

Colorado Springs

1.23

allows per match

Orange County SC

1.07

Colorado Springs

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Colorado Springs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw

74%

Orange County SC or Colorado Springs

76%

Draw or Colorado Springs

50%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+

27%

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals

82%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

51%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

24%

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

68%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

32%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

66%

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Colorado Springs away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.82 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Colorado Springs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Colorado Springs attack 1.23 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orange County SC scores more

50%

level

24%

Colorado Springs scores more

26%

Orange County SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

C. Hegardt↳ T. Trager

38'

41'

48'

56'

59'

M. Micaletto← I. Foster

61'

C. Dunbar↳ N. Benalcazar

66'

A. Fontana↳ Y. Hanya

73'

P. Guimaraes← K. Scott

73'

M. War← T. Trager

76'

J. Fjeldberg← Y. Hanya

78'

A. Fontana

78'

A. Fontana

81'

J. Dhillon← M. Real

88'

B. Jamison← C. Dunbar

88'

K. Santos← C. Hegardt

90'

M. War↳ K. Partida

Orange

Colorado

1

Herrera

14

Lacroix

5

Mahoney

6

▼

Real

33

▼

Foster

23

Metusala

18

Rocha

21

⚽

Fontana

10

Zandi

27

Tejada

20

A

▼

Hanya

1

Shutler

5

▼

Brewitt

23

Doghman

4

A

Benalcaza

20

Latinovic

6

▼

Scott

19

A

Partida

14

⚽

▼

Hegardt

7

⚽

▼

Dunbar

17

MacKinnon

10

A

▼

Trager

Manager: Danny Stone

48'▲A. Miles←▼T. Brewitt

73'▲P. Guimaraes←▼K. Scott

73'▲M. War←▼T. Trager

88'▲B. Jamison←▼C. Dunbar

88'▲K. Santos←▼C. Hegardt

Orange County SC substitutes

24Barjolo13Guimaraes11Jamison31Kadono28Karam33Miles3Santos8Sylla21War30Garcia

Manager: James Chambers

59'▲M. Micaletto←▼I. Foster

76'▲J. Fjeldberg←▼Y. Hanya

81'▲J. Dhillon←▼M. Real

Colorado Springs substitutes

32Burke3Ward13Echevarria22Micaletto77Dhillon11Huerman7Fjeldberg