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Orange County SC II vs Seahorses — USL League Two 2018

Orange County SC II
Orange County SC II
FT
1 – 0
Seahorses
Seahorses
7/15/2018USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orange County SC II56%
×Draw20%
Seahorses24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC II
2.25
Seahorses
1.44

Orange County SC II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 35 away

creates per match

Orange County SC II
2.00
Seahorses
1.37

allows per match

Orange County SC II
1.50
Seahorses
2.49

finishing

Orange County SC II+0.00on par
Seahorses+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC II ↓

Seahorses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Orange County SC II or draw
76%
Orange County SC II or Seahorses
80%
Draw or Seahorses
44%

Winning margin

Orange County SC II wins by 2+
34%
Seahorses wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Orange County SC II 1+ goals
89%
Orange County SC II 2+ goals
65%
Orange County SC II 3+ goals
39%
Seahorses 1+ goals
76%
Seahorses 2+ goals
42%
Seahorses 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC II (draw refunded)
70%
Seahorses (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Seahorses away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC II attack 2.00 + Seahorses defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.25

Seahorses attack 1.37 + Orange County SC II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orange County SC II scores more
56%
level
20%
Seahorses scores more
24%

Orange County SC II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Orange County SC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Orange County SC II 1–0 Seahorses

Orange County SC II beat Seahorses 1-0 in USL League Two on July 15, 2018.

The match was played at Champions Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).