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Optik Rathenow vs Viktoria Berlin — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
1 – 5
Viktoria Berlin
Viktoria Berlin
7/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Optik Rathenow16%
×Draw16%
Viktoria Berlin68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.48
Viktoria Berlin
3.08

Viktoria Berlin creates 108% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.80
Viktoria Berlin
3.67

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
2.50
Viktoria Berlin
1.17

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Viktoria Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
32%
Optik Rathenow or Viktoria Berlin
84%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin
84%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
7%
Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
77%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
43%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
19%
Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals
95%
Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals
81%
Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
19%
Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.80 + Viktoria Berlin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Viktoria Berlin attack 3.67 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
16%
level
16%
Viktoria Berlin scores more
68%

Viktoria Berlin at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Viktoria Berlin

Viktoria Berlin beat Optik Rathenow 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.