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Optik Rathenow vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Staaken
Staaken
11/4/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Optik Rathenow45%
×Draw23%
Staaken32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.81
Staaken
1.48

Optik Rathenow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 66 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.61
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
1.59
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
68%
Optik Rathenow or Staaken
77%
Draw or Staaken
55%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
25%
Staaken wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
84%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
54%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
27%
Staaken 1+ goals
77%
Staaken 2+ goals
43%
Staaken 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
59%
Staaken (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.81

Staaken attack 1.38 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
45%
level
23%
Staaken scores more
32%

Optik Rathenow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Optik Rathenow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Staaken

Optik Rathenow beat Staaken 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.